Could Colombia consider Venezuela as a natural gas supplier again? The idea isn’t new, and in fact, it has been raised as an option since 2022 should Colombia face a shortage that jeopardizes the adequate provision of this essential public service. However, to date, this initiative has been dismissed due to the sanctions against PDVSA and its inclusion on the OFAC list, commonly known as the “Clinton List.” This time, we will explore whether this opportunity could materialize in the near future following the recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States government.

On January 3, 2026, a military operation in Venezuela resulted in the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to face criminal charges before U.S. authorities related to drug trafficking and terrorism. This event immediately sparked discussions about the transition of power in Venezuela, raising the possibility that the United States government might even orchestrate the change of government. This raises a valid question for the Colombian energy sector: if a new framework for international relations is established, will it be possible to purchase Venezuelan natural gas from Colombia?

Before answering, it is necessary to recall the current impediment to entering into agreements to purchase gas from Venezuela: the sanctions. To date, PDVSA (the state-owned company) remains on the “Clinton List,” meaning it is listed as a company accused of participating in money laundering activities. Under the rules of international trade, for reasons of security and reputation, no one enters into agreements with companies included on this list, nor with companies that maintain commercial relationships with listed entities. Therefore, as long as the sanctions regime remains in place, there is no stable framework for Colombian companies to import hydrocarbons from PDVSA without risking becoming commercial pariahs. However, it is worth asking whether a transition of power in Venezuela would open the door to gas purchases from the neighboring country.

At this point, it’s worth mentioning that since December 2024, Colombia has, for the first time, begun importing natural gas to meet residential demand. Additionally, projections from the Market Operator (BEC) indicate that by 2026, 20% of the gas consumed by users in the country will be imported. For this reason, the Ministry of Mines and Energy has coordinated efforts to facilitate the development of gas import infrastructure. This involves not only the design of new ports but also the construction of regasification plants, which are responsible for transforming liquefied natural gas (LNG) into gaseous form so that it can be injected into our gas pipeline network. Investments in this type of infrastructure represent a significant effort for both the public and private sectors, and this is where the fact that Colombia and Venezuela are connected by the Antonio Ricaurte Gas Pipeline becomes relevant.

Importing gas via pipeline would potentially be more competitive than importing by ship, as Colombian market participants would have a regional alternative. This translates into lower costs for the end user because it would: (i) eliminate the need to build new ports and regasification plants; (ii) allow for more stable contracts due to proximity; and (iii) provide greater predictability of supply and price certainty, as it would not depend on the Asian winter or the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

For this reason, the possibility of a political transition in Venezuela, coupled with an explicit definition from the U.S. government regarding which transactions with PDVSA will be permitted under a new administration, could open the door for Colombia to establish natural gas purchase agreements with its neighbor. However, ultimately, this will depend on how the political situation evolves and, above all, whether the U.S. State Department removes the Venezuelan state oil company from the Clinton List. Until that equation is clarified, we will continue to view Venezuelan gas as a hypothesis rather than an operational reality.